It felt like it was only yesterday when SPAC’s were all the range and every single investor wanted a piece of the action, well it seems like those days are well and truly over. Since the end of February SPAC’s have taken the kind of beating that you just can’t bear to watch. The standout loser of all of those is Skillz.
Skillz, the third party platform that allows competitive matchmaking for mainly mobile games was all the range when it originally merged with the ticker $FEAC. All of the perceived hype and conversation around the SPAC lead to the stock going from $10 all the way up to the mid $30s. Then seemingly out of the blue an announcement came out from the company saying that they had partnered with the NLF to produce a mobile game. The stock soared. Little did they know at the time but that signalled the very top for the stock’s price.
Since then the stock has come crashing down, at first due to the lack of desire for hyper growth stocks but also because of the short thesis by Wolfpack research that argued that the NFL might not generate the revenue SKLZ investors hope and the revenue growth expectations will not be met due to current monthly downloads of SKLZ based games falling.
Well, now we are sitting at a crossroads and a time of reflection. Currently, SKLZ is priced at $15 a share giving it a market cap of $6 billion, which is 12x 2020 revenue. A massive price to pay for a company that relies on revenue from games like Solitaire. There is of course a business underneath the stock price, and yes it does have some competitive advantages such as it’s anti cheating algorithm and proof of concept. The idea definitely has value, however, will it be adopted by bigger brands? Difficult to know but it’s key to figuring out what the company is worth.
The uncertainty and lack of big titles in the pipeline in my opinion make this a company to avoid, they’re not expected to produce profit for years, don’t have a big title to rely on in the future and management make some questionable decisions, including diluting shareholders after announcing the big NFL deal.